Nomura Holdings: Czech Republic at Risk of Currency Crisis

The Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary face the risk of exchange-rate crises over the next one year as fiscal and external challenges mount, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.

The warning is based on analysis of eight indicators including FX reserves import cover, real short-term interest rates, as well as fiscal and current account measures, according to Nomura’s Damocles Index which assessed 32 emerging markets’ vulnerability to a currency crisis.

Egypt, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Pakistan have already experienced crises but are not yet out of the woods, Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh wrote in a report Monday.

Hungary’s forint is among the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year after a hold up in recovery funding from the European Union.

Currencies of Romania and the Czech Republic have also declined more than 8% against the dollar.

Vulnerability of emerging market currencies is now at the highest in more than two decades and gives an “ominous warning” of growing broad-based risks, the report said.

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